Released: Monday, November 6, 2000

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

ICRs final release before the 2000 Presidential Election

Four Party Race Leaned Vote

Trend (based on Likely Voters*)

Summary

Into the final poll, and it is simply too close to call. Both Bush and Gore had slight increases in their votes going into this final stretch, but there is no clear-cut leader. It will go down to the final vote on Election Day, Tuesday, November 7th. That is when the speculation ends, and the new President emerges.

Overall

• Given a four-party race Gore, Bush, Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan, and Green Party candidate Ralph Nader likely voters are split, as they essentially have been during this entire campaign period, between Bush (46%) and Gore (44%). Nader (7%) and Buchanan (2%) are finishing out with only a small percentage of the votes.

Party Differences

• Party loyalties have peaked just before election day, with Gore garnering 85% of the votes from Likely Democratic Voters, and Bush with 90% of the votes from Likely Republican Voters.
  
• Throughout the campaign, Likely Independent Voters have been split between Bush and Gore, and our final poll shows no change. The Independent vote is up in the air between Gore (42%) and Bush (39%). With no clear-cut winner to be found in this segment, Independent Voters will have a definite impact on the final outcome of this election.
  

Gender Differences

• Very little change in male and female voting patterns. Almost half of Likely Male voters are sticking with Bush (49%), and slightly fewer with Gore (42%). The likely female vote is a reverse of the male vote, with Democrat Gore capturing 47% of the votes from Likely Female voters, and Bush with 44%.
  

Methodology

This poll was conducted as part of ICRs twice weekly consumer omnibus study, EXCEL^sm. A total of 1,678 interviews were completed with adults aged 18+ from November 1-5, 2000. The results presented above are based on Likely Voters (68% of the sample) and have a margin of error of +/- 3.0%.