|
Summary
Summary
Since
early August, ICR has been providing nationally
representative polls of the American electorate. These polls
have shown a tight race for President of the
United States
, with President George W. Bush holding slight leads rarely
outside the margin of error.
It
has been clear for some time that the race will be decided by a
small number of states. These states, namely, Arizona,
Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,
Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania,
Washington, and Wisconsin, are largely thought of as being too
close to call. As such, ICR dedicated its resources
in the five days before the 2004 Presidential Election to these
key states.
Registered
Voters: Swing States
Based
on registered voters (N = 500, margin of error = +/-4.4%), 47.0
percent say they will vote for George W. Bush, 46.1 percent for
John Kerry, and 6.9 percent for others or undecided.
Likely
Voters
Among
likely voters (registered voters who say they are certain they
will vote, N = 473, margin of error = +/-4.5%) 48.2 percent say
they will vote for George W. Bush, 47.3 percent for John Kerry,
and 4.5 percent for others or undecided.
Swing
States by Party Identification
Of course, the vast majority of republicans say they are voting
for George W. Bush, as are democrats for John Kerry. Voter
preference within independents is thus critical for both
candidates. Within swing states, the candidates are
presently splitting the independent vote equally at 47.3 percent:
Methodology
This
poll was conducted as part of ICRs twice weekly consumer
omnibus study, EXCEL. A total of 734 interviews were
completed with adults aged 18+ from
October 27 - 31, 2004
. The data was weighted to national Census/CPS estimates
based on age, education, sex, race/ethnicity, region, metropolitan
status and household telephone lines.
ICR/International
Communications Research
53
West Baltimore Pike
Media,
PA 19063
Phone:
(484) 840-4300 Fax: (484) 840-4599
E-mail: icr@icrsurvey.com
|
