Released: Tuesday, August 31, 2004

AUSTIN,

Summary

From the time between just before the Democratic National Convention to just prior to the Republican National Convention, a number of indicators have moved slightly in favor of President George W. Bush.

The ICR Presidential Election Poll of August 25 29 exhibits a number of interesting changes over the course of August in the race for the Presidency, including an increase in Independents (registered and certain to vote) favoring Bush, as well as an increase in vote preference for Bush among respondents lower in various socio-economic indicators.  Kerry, on the other hand, appears to be further solidifying the Democratic base, but has not done well within registered independents.  

Overall, the race for President is neck and neck.  Based on registered voters who are certain they will vote, 45.3 percent say they will vote for George W. Bush, 48 percent for John Kerry, 2.1 percent for Ralph Nader, and 4.6 percent undecided:

The Race for Independents

As reported in the ICR press release of August 14th, John Kerry has a substantive lead among Independents.  This is in sharp contrast to August, 2000, when the last Democratic nominee for President, Al Gore, trailed in this important population by nearly 10 points.

However, among the largest differences between the ICR Presidential Trackers of August 4 8 and August 24 29 was within Independents who are registered and certain they will vote.  Within this population there was a 11-point shift in preference toward George W. Bush.  Nevertheless, Kerry still holds a substantial lead:

Kerry Solidifies Base

At the same time, John Kerry significantly solidified his base support, as Democrats certain to vote and registered increased their support for Kerry from 79.2% to 84.3%.  This is important for Kerry, as George W. Bush already enjoys support from registered and certain to vote Republicans to the tune of 89 percent (unchanged from early August).

Bush Increases Share of Low SES Voters

Finally, Bush is gaining ground with voters who earn less than $25,000/year as well as voters with at most a High School education.  Specifically, Bush gained approximately five percent within these population.  This population, as has traditionally been the case, lags in terms of vote certainty and voter registration.  However, in a high turnout election this population may decide the election, and as such is critical to both candidates.

Methodology

This poll was conducted as part of ICRs twice weekly consumer omnibus study, EXCEL.  A total of 1,014 interviews were completed with adults aged 18+ from August 25-29, 2004.  The results presented above are based on registered voters (79% of the sample) and have a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. 

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