Two Party Race Leaned Vote
                      Based on Total Registered Voters (n=786)




                              Four Party Race Leaned Vote
                       Based on Total Registered Voters (n=786)

Summary

On the heels of the Republican National Convention held in Philadelphia, George W. Bush continues to dominate the race for presidency. His lead over Democratic candidate, Al Gore, however, is not an overwhelming one and the race for the presidency is far from sealed. Key findings are detailed below.

Two-Party Race

• If the presidential election had occurred on the day respondents were interviewed, approximately one-half of all registered voters would have voted for the Republican candidate, George W. Bush (50%). Al Gore, the Democratic candidate, would have been the choice for almost four-in-ten (38%) registered voters. Only slightly more than one-in-ten would have voted for neither or did not know whom they would have chosen (6% mentioning each).

 

• By political affiliation, most Democratic registered voters choose Gore (78%), and most Republican registered voters choose Bush (90%). Independents lean more toward Bush (46%) than Gore (35%) with 10% choosing neither candidate.
  
• While Bush leads among both men and women, he garners a high percentage of the vote among men. Fifty six percent of male registered voters would vote for George W. Bush while 34% would vote for Al Gore. Among female registered voters, Bush receives 45% of the vote versus Gores 42%.

Four-Party Race

• Given a four-party race Gore, Bush, Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan, and the Green Party candidate Ralph Nader most registered voters would still pick or lean toward the Republican Bush (45%), followed relatively closely by the Democrat Gore (35%). Both Nader (6%) and Buchanan (3%) receive small percentages of the vote.

 

• In a four-party race, again the majority of Democrats and Republicans would choose their partys candidate. Independents would be most likely to chose Bush (39%), followed closely by Gore (33%). Ralph Nader garners 9% of the Independent vote, but almost as many say they would choose none of these four candidates (8%)
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• Among female registered voters, when factoring in the other two candidates, Gore and Bush receive almost equal portions of the women vote Gore 41%; Bush 40%; Nader 4%; Buchanan 2%. However, Bush maintain his strong lead among male registered voters Bush 51%; Gore 29%; Nader 8%; Buchanan 4%.

The Make-up of the Voting Population

• Currently, three quarters of the U.S. population are registered to vote (75%).
  

  • Significantly more registered voters:

  • Are 35+ than 18 to 34 years of age
  • Have an annual household income of $50K+ than less than $50K

• Eight-in-ten registered voters participated in the 1996 presidential election.
  
• Most registered voters are absolutely certain that they will vote in the 2000 presidential election this November (73%). The remaining respondents will probably vote (15%) or put the chances at 50-50 or less (11%).

• Both Republicans (85%) and Democrats (74%) are more likely than Independents (60%) to be absolutely certain that they will vote in the 2000 presidential election.
  
• Caucasians, those with at least some college education, and those with household incomes of at least $25K are all significantly more likely than their counterparts to be absolutely certain that they will vote in November, 2000.