ABC
NEWS/MONEY MAGAZINE CONSUMER INDEX - 4/13/03
EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, April 15, 2003
Confidence
Rises Sharply Amid Positive War News
Consumer
confidence shot up this week in apparent reaction to the events
in Iraq, scoring one of its best one-week gains in 17 years.
Extending
a three-week advance thats erased a buildup of pre-war
uncertainty, ratings of current economic conditions jumped to
their best level in more than four months, while pessimism about
the economys future direction eased.
The
ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on ratings
of current conditions, gained five points this week and is now
up 11 points since the war began. In a separate measure of
expectations, the number of Americans who say the economy is getting
worse has fallen from 52 percent last month to 37 percent
now.
INDEX
The ABC/Money Index stands at -17 on its scale of +100 to
-100; it was -28 on March 23, its lowest since December 1993.
This weeks advance marks only the 14th time the index has
gained five or more points in one week in more than 900 weekly
polls.
Even with this gain, however, the index is still below its
average, -9, since this poll began in December 1985, and far
below the heights it reached from 1998-2000.
ABC/Money Index
4/13/03 -17
4/6/03 -22
3/30/03 -26
3/23/03 -28
PERSIAN
GULF WAR The ABC/Money index gained nine points from the
start of the Persian Gulf War in January 1991 through March
1991, mostly in the weeks immediately following the wars end.
Other consumer confidence surveys found large gains in
confidence after that war, mainly due to significant advances in
expectations. It didnt last, though confidence peaked
after the war, then lost ground later in 1991.
Last
months reading on expectations 52 percent negative
was its worst since 1992. Today pessimists still significantly
outnumber optimists, but much less overwhelmingly. The number of
pessimists has fallen by 15 points, while optimists gained 11.
Economy is...
Getting better Getting worse Staying the
same
4/13/03
20%
37
43
3/16/03
9
52
39
CURRENT
SENTIMENT The ABC/Money index measures views of the economy,
personal finances and the buying climate. This week 29 percent
of Americans rate the economy positively still well below
average (41 percent), but up eight points in the last three
weeks.
Many
more, 59 percent say their own finances are in good shape, up
five points in three weeks. Ratings of the buying climate have
been flatter at 36 percent positive, theyre up just three
points since the wars
start.
ABC News/Money magazine poll
Positive
ratings of:
This week Last week 2003 high
2003 low 17-yr. avg.
National economy
29% 24
30
21 41
Buying climate
36
35
37
32 39
Personal finances
59
58
59
52 57
Consumer
Comfort Index -17
-22
-17
-28 -9
TREND
The ABC/Money index has averaged -23 so far this year,
compared to an average of -11 last year (its worst since 1996)
and a 17-year average of -9. Its record high is +38, reached in
January 2000, the year it averaged a career-best +29. Its worst
is -50, reached in February 1992; that year it averaged
-44.
ABC/Money Index
Today
-17
Last
week
-22
Three weeks ago
-28 2003 low
Recent
high
+1 March, April 2002
2003
average
-23 To date
2002
average
-11
2001
average
+4
2000
average
+29 Best full year
1992 average
-44 Worst full year
Jan. 16,
2000
+38 Record high
Feb. 9,
1992
-50 Record low
Average since 12/85
-9
GROUPS
- As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The
index is +7 among people in higher-income households compared to
-48 in the lowest, -7 among college graduates while -36 among
high-school dropouts, -11 among whites but -47 among blacks and
-7 among men while -25 among women.
Here's
a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:
NATIONAL
ECONOMY Twenty-nine percent of Americans rate the nation's
economy as excellent or good; it was 24 percent last week. The
best was 80 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was seven percent
in late 1991 and early 1992.
Pos. NET Excel.
Good Neg. NET
Not
good Poor
This
week
29
1
28
71
50 21
Avg.
since 12/85 41
4
37
59
40 19
PERSONAL
FINANCES - Fifty-nine percent rate their own finances as
excellent or good; it was 58 percent last week. The best was 70
percent, set Aug. 30, 1998 and last matched in January 2000. The
worst was 42 percent March 14, 1993.
Pos. NET Excel.
Good Neg. NET Not
good Poor
This
week
59
5 54
41
31 10
Avg.
since 12/85 57
5 53
43
30 12
BUYING
CLIMATE - Thirty-six percent say it's an excellent or good time
to buy things they want and need; it was 35 percent last week.
The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 20 percent
in fall 1990.
Pos. NET Excel.
Good Neg. NET Not
good Poor
This
week
36
3 33
64
44 20
Avg.
since 12/85 39
3 36
61
41 20
METHODOLOGY
- The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents
a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random
sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's
results are based on 1,006 interviews in the month ending April
13, 2003, and have an error margin of plus or minus three
percentage points. The expectations question was conducted among
503 respondents April 2-13; that result has a 4.5-point error
margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research
of Media, Pa.
The
ABC/Money index is derived as follows: The negative response to
each index question is subtracted from the positive response to
that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and
divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone
positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all
three measures). The survey began in December 1985.
Analysis
by Dalia Sussman.
ABC
News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at:
<http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/PollVault/PollVault.html>
Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934.
04/13/03
This Last 4 Wks
3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo
12 Mo 12 Mo
Week Week
Ago Ago
Ago High
Low Avg
Group
GENERAL
POPULATION:
Overall
Index
-17 -22
-26 -21
1
1 -28
-15
State of Economy
-42 -52
-56 -48 -12
-12 -58
-38
Personal Finances
18 16
10 10
26 26
4 14
Buying Climate
-28 -30
-32 -26
-10 -10
-36 -23
------------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS
Sex:
Men
-7 -10
-14 -13
9
9 -18
-8
Women
-25 -32
-37 -29
-6 -6
-38 -22
Age:
18 -
34
-12 -13
-24 -16
10 10
-25 -8
35 -
44
-10 -20
-18 -18
-8 -1
-31 -15
45 -
54
-30 -32
-37 -27
-3
6 -41
-19
55 -
64
-11 -18
-30 -22
8
8 -39
-18
65
+
-23 -30
-24 -31
-5 -5
-36
-24
Income:
Under $15K
-48 -48
-47 -61
-47 -26
-61 -46
$15K To $24.9K
-45 -49
-47 -38
-26 -19
-55 -37
$25K To $39.9K
-26 -34
-49 -39
1 1
-49 -24
$40K To $49.9K
-6
-5 -20
-7 4
12 -30
-9
Over
$50K
7
5 0
6 29
29 -15
7
Region:
Northeast
-19 -28
-34 -25
2
2 -36
-19
Midwest
-14 -19
-30 -22
-5
4 -34
-15
South
-16 -20
-24 -22
1
4 -29
-17
West
-17 -22
-17 -16
7
9 -25
-10
Race:
White
-11 -18
-23 -16
5
5 -23
-12
Black
-47 -44
-44
49 -18
-18 -60
-38
Politics:
Republican
12
2 -3
10 34
34 -3
10
Democrat
-41 -39
-39 -40
-14 -14
-46 -30
Independent
-13 -19
-33
-34 -5
-5 -38
-19
Education:
< High School
-36 -38
-41 -37
-12
-12 -59
-37
High Sch. Grad. -20
-27
-30 -30
-4 -4
-40 -21
College
+
-7 -12
-17
-10 9
11 -18
-4
Home:
Own
-12 -18
-21
-16 9
9 -24
-11
Rent
-29 -32
-35
-34
-20 -9
-40 -26
Marital
Status:
Single
-13 -17
-25 -19
-2
10 -25
-10
Married
-13 -16
-20
-18 7
7 -27
-12
Sep/Wid/Div
-31 -45
-47 -36
-16 -14
-52 -31
Employ.
Status:
Full-Time
-6 -12
-20 -16
10
10 -20
-7
Part-Time
-29 -40
25 -14
7
14 -40
-16
Not Employed -25
-28
-34 -33
-13 -13
-40 -27
1.
Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting
worse or staying the same?
Getting Getting Staying
No
Better Worse
the
Same Opinion
4/13/03
20 37
43
0
3/16/03
9 52
39
0
2/16/03
20
44
36
0
1/19/03
19
43
37
0
12/29/02
16
44
39
1
12/1/02
21
37
42
1
11/3/02
17
38
44
0
10/6/02
14
48
37
1
9/1/02
19
36
44
1
8/4/02
21
43
34
0
7/28/02*
17
44
39
1
7/15/02*
20
36 43
2
7/7/02
22
37 41
0
6/9/02
27
29 43
1
5/12/02
35
27 38
0
4/14/02
34
26 40
0
3/17/02
47
20 32
1
2/17/02
29
27 42
2
1/20/02
25
36
39
1
12/9/01
24
37
38
1
11/11/01
16
48
36
1
10/14/01
15
46
39 0
9/16/01
9
44
46
1
8/12/01
16
46
38
0
7/15/01
13
40
46
0
6/17/01
17
45
38
1
5/20/01
13
47
39
0
4/22/01
12
44
44
0
3/25/01
13
49
37
1
2/11/01
13
45
41
1
1/14/01
12
40
47
1
Call
for full trend.
*ABC/Post
***END***
