House-Spoiling for a Fight

Democrats look for formula to regain House against the odds

By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The numbers favor the Republicans if this fall's elections for the House are decided district by district, so Democrats want to fight the battle on a national stage.

Democrats feel they have a popular agenda and want a campaign where every competitive congressional race revolves around the same issue - preferably of their choosing.

House Democrats emerged from a meeting with President Clinton last week declaring they were at one with the White House on what their party hopes will be a winning message headlined by pledges to save Social Security and improve education.

A poll conducted for The Associated Press shows that Democrats have an advantage among older voters, who have a strong interest in Social Security and health care, and a 2-to-1 advantage among those who consider education a top issue.

The poll of 1,017 adults, conducted July 31-Aug. 4 by ICR of Media, Pa., has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Education was identified as a top priority for voters, and nearly one-third of people who said they were very likely to vote picked education as the issue most important to them.

More than 40 percent of those who chose education said they would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate; about 20 percent said they would vote for a Republican.

Among women, 47 percent said they would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, while 34 percent said they would vote Republican. Nearly half the people age 55 and older said they would support a Democratic candidate, while Republicans were supported by just over three in 10.

William Bliss, a 74 year-old retired sales manager from Minneapolis, said he plans to vote Democratic as usual because he likes the party's approach on the issues. "They have a better handle on our society as a whole," he said.

The AP poll showed 45 percent of those who say they are very likely to vote would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, while 38 percent would support a Republican.

Such generic surveys do not always reflect how a party will fare, because they do not measure voters' feelings for specific candidates running in their districts.

Republicans hold a 22-seat margin in the House, meaning Democrats must force a switch of 11 seats to control the chamber. The math favors the Republicans.

Democrats say they need to win eight of about 10 competitive districts being vacated by Republican lawmakers, defeat 10 GOP incumbents and lose only a few of their own seats.

In an appeal to these voters, Clinton has demanded that Congress use budget surpluses to bolster Social Security reserves. Republicans want to cut taxes with the money.

Congressional Democrats hope the president stands firm against Republicans, giving elderly Democrats reason to vote in what is expected to be a low-turnout election.

Emerging from the Democratic caucus meeting attended by Clinton, House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, (Democrat, MO), said: "I told the president and the vice president that we had more than enough members ready to uphold vetoes if they come on bills that would spend the surplus for tax cuts for the wealthy rather than saving Social Security first."

Marie Mathias, a 60 year-old kindergarten teacher from Newnan, GA., said she would prefer the Republican tax cut because "the money's just going to get spent anyway."

The wild card in all this is Clinton himself. While the AP poll shows that most voters hold him in a favorable light, the investigation into his relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky threatens to divert attention from Democratic campaigns on such issues as Social Security and health care.