Y2K Poll

By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer

Y2K anxieties ease, most expect minor problems, a third to stock up

WASHINGTON (AP) - Marian Sullivan expects minor problems because of the Y2K computer bug at the beginning of next year and a wintertime loss in the power supply is the possibility that worries her most.

A majority of Americans, like Mrs. Sullivan, expect some inconveniences related to Y2K problems and a third plan to stock up, says an Associated Press poll that suggested fears have eased over the last six months. More people mentioned the power supply as a likely problem than other choices such as banking services, the transportation system and food distribution.

"The thing I fear the most is if the electricity goes out, the pipes freeze over, and they burst. The water comes down like Niagara Falls. Last time it happened, we had to take the rugs up," said Mrs. Sullivan, a 77-year-old retiree from Westbury, N.Y., on Long Island.

She says she plans to buy "some canned foods and tuna fish" but doesn't intend to buy a generator because "you have to know how to work it."

The poll, conducted for the AP by ICR of Media, Pa., said 69 percent of Americans expect minor problems, 23 percent expect no problems and only 5 percent expect major problems. The number of people who expect major problems dropped from 11 percent in a July poll on the same topic.

The percentage of people who think Y2K problems will last more than two weeks dropped by half, from 32 percent to 16 percent, and the number who think the problems will be confined to less than a few days has increased from 22 percent to 36 percent.

"We've been pleased with the growing level of awareness of the public, and increasing level of confidence with the public that the transition will not lead to a major disruption in their lives," said John Koskinen, chair of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. "We are very confident about the power supply."

The administration has been repeatedly reassuring people that the Y2K problems should be manageable.

"We have been advising people for some time that they should be prepared for a long winter weekend," he said. "When they're reporting they are buying extra food and water for the weekend, we think that's appropriate behavior."

The number of people who plan to stock up on supplies for the Y2K transition has remained stable over the last six months - about a third. Women were more likely than men to say they were going to stock up.

But people have shifted their focus on what is likely to be the biggest problem. The number one concern in the AP poll in July was banking and financial services, mentioned by a third of those polled.

In the new telephone poll of 1,010 people, taken Dec. 15-19, the most frequently mentioned concern was the power supply, mentioned by a third, followed by banking and financial services, the transportation system, phone systems and food distribution.

The poll's margin of error rate was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The so-called Y2K problem exists because many older computers and software programs recognize only the last two digits of the year and could mistakenly interpret "00" as 1900.

Some researchers caution people are missing the point if they think the Y2K bug will only be evident in the first few days of the year.

"Most people think there will be a moment of truth," said Paula Gordon, a researcher on the topic at George Washington University. "There are going to be many moments of truth." She recommended preparing for two weeks of inconvenience with plenty of nonperishable foods and water.

While many plan to stock up, two-thirds of the public say they don't.

John Campbell, who works at a lumber mill in New Bern, N.C., says he doesn't plan to race to the store.

"I'm just a working stiff," he said, "and I don't have time to worry about it."

One out of five people say they plan to get some money out of the bank, a slight drop from one out of four in July. Blacks were more likely than whites to say they will withdraw money.

While no one knows "the extent or problems we'll face," Norman L. Dean, executive director of the Center for Y2K and Society, said, "it's not going to be the end of life as we know it."