AP Poll: Gore Has Edge on Economy                                November 1, 2000

By WILL LESTER, The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) - Voters give Al Gore a slight edge over George W. Bush on which candidate could do a better job of keeping the economy strong, says an Associated Press poll, but even more - four in 10 - think it will make no difference who wins the presidential election.

That's a bigger group than those who think either Democrat Gore, 31 percent, or Republican Bush, 22 percent, would be more likely to keep the nation's economy strong, according to the poll conducted for The AP by ICR of Media, Pa. That may help explain why Gore has gotten only limited mileage out of the issue.

Many political analysts had predicted that a robust economy would automatically translate into Gore's election. National polls at this late date give Bush an edge or show the race essentially even.

"I don't believe any president controls the economy," said Ed Poynter, a 59-year-old engineer from Centerline, Mich., near Detroit, who considers himself an independent. "The business of government is business - big business. And big business gets what they want; it would happen either way."

Not surprisingly, Democrats think Gore would do a better job with the economy, 59 percent, while Republicans generally like Bush, 48 percent. Independents lean toward Gore by 26 percent to 17 percent, but 51 percent of independents think it makes no difference for the economy - a sentiment shared by many Republicans, 43 percent, and Democrats, 32 percent.

"My general feeling is that both candidates stand about the same place, pretty much the same cut on the economy," said Richard Manderscheid, a 39-year-old businessman from Naples, Fla., and a Republican. "I think the Gore-Clinton administration has taken credit for technological advancements. That's just the way our economy has been growing."

Women and men were about equally split on which candidate would be more likely to keep the economy strong. On the question of who they support in the election, women generally support Gore and more men support Bush, but they were in lockstep on the economy - giving Gore an edge but with many feeling it will make no difference.

Almost nine in 10 in the poll say they are doing better or about the same as four years ago. Only 10 percent are doing worse. Those kind of optimistic results often can forecast the outcome of an election. But poll evidence this year has been mixed.

Bush's across-the-board tax cuts are narrowly favored over Gore's smaller, targeted tax cuts. More than a third of Democrats like the Bush approach, while about a fourth of Republicans like the Gore approach. Independents are about evenly split.

Two thirds in the poll say they are not very worried or not at all worried about the stock market, considering its recent ups and downs.

The poll of 811 registered voters was taken Oct. 25-29 and has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

A third of Republicans, two-thirds of Democrats and four in 10 independents say their families' financial situations are better now than four years ago.

Shani Horne, a 32-year-old Los Angeles mother of two and a Democrat, has no doubt Gore's election would be good for her economically.

"I'm with Gore all the way," she said. "I'm afraid what will happen if Bush comes into office."

With such thoughts in mind, the Democrats have been pushing Gore to make the economy his centerpiece in the campaign's waning days and have voiced frustration as he has shifted themes from the economy to Social Security to education and back again.

But if Gore has set out to convince people his own election would be a guarantee of continued prosperity, he hasn't succeeded. More voters disagree than agree with Gore's assertion his election will safeguard the economy.

Bob Adams, a 40-year-old Republican and building engineer from Kansas City, Mo., said the strong economy definitely shouldn't be attributed to Gore, or to President Clinton.

"I think it happened in spite of them," he said.

AP-NY-11-01-00 0317EST