Is This Exciting or What?

Analysis by Dalia Sussman
and Gary Langer, ABCNEWS.com

Feb. 15 Its been a political junkies dream: The
insurgent candidate surges, the party favorite looks
suddenly vulnerable, the campaign turns nasty and
the next primary takes on the trappings of a 
make-or-break battle.

Half the publics response: A stifled yawn.

For all the reputed political drama of the last two weeks, 48 percent of Americans in an ABCNEWS poll describe the 2000 presidential campaign as "dull." Slightly fewer, 44 percent, call it "interesting." At least thats better than it was in the summer of the 1996 campaign, when a whopping 73 percent found the contest dull.

Why is half the public unengaged? One reason may be that some Americans regard the primaries as preliminaries after all, large majorities dont even vote in the primaries; they may be saving their interest for the main event. For example, interest in the 1996 campaign, while never high, gained 20 points by its closing days.

Another reason is that the nations long-running economic boom has created whats been called a "a hotbed of rest" in the nation: Gripes are down, contentment is up, so public demand for a political fix to the nations problems is on the wane. Voter interest and turnout alike tend to rise when the economys in bad shape, and to slip in good times.

Sleeping Giant

Interestingly, the voting bloc thats responsible for much of both John McCain and Bill Bradleys support is the least engaged overall: Most independents call the campaign dull, compared to minorities of Republicans and Democrats.

Independents tend to be less interested in politics overall; so do young adults, another group thats more apt to say the campaign is dull.

Interest could increase, especially if the general election contest is close (and/or the economy happens to tank). Interest was low in the 1996 election, when the economy was good and the incumbent had a long-term and seemingly unassailable lead. But interest was much higher in the 1992 election, when the economy was poor and the public was agitated; just before Election Day, 84 percent of Americans called that race interesting.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS.com survey was conducted by telephone Feb. 9-13, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,011 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.