Buchanans Uphill Battle

Analysis By Dan Merkle, ABCNEWS.com

Aug. 10 As Pat Buchanan fights to secure the Reform Party nomination this week, an even bigger battle lies ahead: winning over the public.

Only 17 percent of Americans say theyd seriously consider voting for Buchanan and thats more a cap on his support than a base, since just considering a candidate is a far cry from supporting him. Buchanans actual support for president is only four percent.

In addition, just 17 percent want to see Buchanan nominated in the first place. And even fewer, 10 percent, classify themselves as supporters of the Reform Party down from a high of 18 percent in 1996.

Infighting may have contributed to the partys decline in popularity. Party leaders are meeting this week to mediate between Buchanan supporters and opponents, who include members loyal to party founder Ross Perot. The partys convention starts today in California to announce the nominee.

Support for Buchanan against George W. Bush, Al Gore and Ralph Nader hasnt exceeded 6 percent of registered voters in ABCNEWS/Washington Post polls since May. It was 4 percent in the latest survey, completed Sunday, and even thats tenuous: Half of Buchanans supporters say theres a "good chance" theyll change their minds.

The Base

Buchanans prospects are better, but hardly overwhelming, among the 10 percent who say theyre Reform Party supporters. Forty percent of this nominal base say theyd like to see him nominated which translates neatly to his four percent support.

Reform supporters represent Buchanans high-water mark in this poll. No other demographic or political group gives him anywhere near this level of support. Even independents, the key swing group with diminished ties to the traditional parties, arent especially fertile ground.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS.com survey was conducted by telephone August 2-6, among a random national sample of 1,014 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work conducted by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa.