Crime

Analysis By Daniel Merkle, ABCNEWS.com

June 7 The public has grown less pessimistic about the severity of the nations crime problem, mirroring a decline in actual crime rates in recent years. Still, broad concern remains.

Just more than a third of Americans think the crime problem in this country is "very bad," down from nearly half in 1996. The FBI last month reported that crime has fallen in each of the last eight years, the longest stretch of declining crime rates on record.

Things are even better closer to home. Just five percent say crime is very bad in their own community. Thats about the same as in recent years.

Priorities

Though both crime rates and the perceived severity of the problem are on the wane, crime remains a top public priority. It ranked third out of 15 issues tested in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, with 72 percent calling it "very important" in their vote for president.

One reason: Theres still a broad sense that crime is a national problem, even though the intensity of that view has eased. In addition to the 36 percent who call the crime problem "very bad," another 44 percent call it "bad," for a total of 80 percent. Thats down from 90 percent in 1996, but still very high. (Twenty-three percent, by contrast, say crime is either "bad" or "very bad" in their local community.)

The view that America has a continued crime problem is not unwarranted. Though there have been improvements, the rate of violent crime in the United States is still much higher than in many other countries. For example, the Justice Department reports that the murder rate is about six times higher here than in Great Britain.

Disconnect

The difference between perceptions of crime locally and nationally are logical as well: Most people dont have much direct experience with crime where they live, but they are exposed to reports of crimes elsewhere via the news media.

Indeed, among those who perceive a crime problem nationally, 82 percent say their assessment is based on crime reports theyve seen in the news. Only 17 percent say its based on their personal experiences.

Groups

Perceptions vary by demographic group; crime is seen as more severe by women and the elderly (who may feel more vulnerable) and those with lower incomes (who may live in less secure areas).

Methodology

This ABC News.com survey was conducted by telephone May 31-June 4, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,013 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa.