Americans Would Vote for Clinton Over Bush

In a hypothetical match-up, Americans now say they would vote for President Clinton
over George W. Bush a change from last winter when Bush was the preferred
candidate according to a new ABCNEWS.com poll. (ABCNEWS.com)

Analysis By Dalia Sussman, ABCNEWS.com

Oct. 4, 2000 The comeback kid has done it again: Bill Clinton slightly outpoints George W. Bush in a hypothetical test of public preferences for president, after trailing Bush last winter.

Of course the 22nd Amendment prevents Clinton from seeking a third term. But the result does mark quite a change from January: Then Bush led in the hypothetical matchup by 51-42 percent. Now its a slight Clinton edge, 45-40 percent.

"Comeback" could be overstating it, since theres been more of a drop in Bushs support (down 11 points) than a gain in Clintons (up three). (More people say they wouldnt vote for either one.) Also, the 45-40 percent number is among the general public. Among registered voters its 44-41 percent. (This poll didnt try to isolate likely voters.)

Bush, of course, has more serious concerns. In January he led his real opponent, Al Gore, by a sizable margin; now its a dead heat in the latest ABCNEWS/Washington Post poll.

Groups

Clinton is supported by some of the same groups that backed him in 1996. Men divide evenly, while women favor the president by a 10-point margin. Clinton also does better with younger Americans and, naturally, with Democrats.

Methodology

This ABCNEWS.com survey was conducted by telephone Sept. 27-Oct. 1, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,008 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.